A New Coronavirus Estimation Global Score for Predicting Mortality During Hospitalization in Patients with COVID-19.

Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exists as a pandemic. Mortality during hospitalization is multifactorial, and there is urgent need for a risk stratification model to predict in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients. Here we aimed to construct a risk score system for early identification of COVID-19 patients at high probability of dying during in-hospital treatment. Methods: In this retrospective analysis, a total of 821 confirmed COVID-19 patients from 3 centers were assigned to developmental (n = 411, between January 14, 2020 and February 11, 2020) and validation (n = 410, between February 14, 2020 and March 13, 2020) groups. Based on demographic, symptomatic, and laboratory variables, a new Coronavirus estimation global (CORE-G) score for prediction of in-hospital death was established from the developmental group, and its performance was then evaluated in the validation group. Results: The CORE-G score consisted of 18 variables (5 demographics, 2 symptoms, and 11 laboratory measurements) with a sum of 69.5 points. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the model performed well in the developmental group (H = 3.210, P = 0.880), and it was well validated in the validation group (H = 6.948, P = 0.542). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.955 in the developmental group (sensitivity, 94.1%; specificity, 83.4%) and 0.937 in the validation group (sensitivity, 87.2%; specificity, 84.2%). The mortality rate was not significantly different between the developmental (n = 85,20.7%) and validation (n = 94, 22.9%, P = 0.608) groups. Conclusions: The CORE-G score provides an estimate of the risk of in-hospital death. This is the first step toward the clinical use of the CORE-G score for predicting outcome in COVID-19 patients.

Antiviral Abidol is Associated with the Reduction of In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global public health crisis. There are no specific antiviral agents for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2. Information regarding the effect of Abidol on in-hospital mortality is scarce. The present study aimed to evaluate the treatment effect of Abidol for patients with COVID-19 before and after propensity score matching (PSM). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study analyzed 1019 patients with confirmed COVID-19 in China from December 22, 2019 to March 13, 2020. Patients were divided to Abidol (200 mg, tid, 5-7 days, n = 788, 77.3%) and No-Abidol (n = 231, 22.7%) groups. The primary outcome was the mortality during hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 1019 COVID-19 patients, the age was (60.4 ±â€Š14.5) years. Abidol-treated patients, compared with No-Abidol-treated patients, had a shorter duration from onset of symptoms to admission, less frequent renal dysfunction, lower white blood cell counts (lymphocytes <0.8) and erythrocyte sending rate, lower interleukin-6, higher platelet counts and plasma IgG and oxygen saturation, and less frequent myocardial injury. The mortality during hospitalization before PSM was 17.9% in Abidol group and 34.6% in No-Abidol (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.610, 95% confident interval (CI): 1.980-3.440), all seen in severe and critical patients. After PSM, the in-hospital death was 13.6% in Abidol and 28.6% in No-Abidol group (HR = 2.728, 95% CI: 1.598-4.659). CONCLUSIONS: Abidol-treatment results in less in-hospital death for severe and critical patients with COVID-19. Further randomized study is warranted to confirm the findings from this study.